The spike was expected – the back-to-school season has seen an increase in COVID-19 cases every year since the pandemic began – and it has arrived in Cortland along with a new variant just a few weeks ahead of a new vaccine.
And it’s very likely, although not guaranteed, that as the virus mutates health officials will advise routine vaccine updates, much like annual influenza shots, health experts said.
“Most people are expecting that there will be an annual vaccination that will protect against the flu and also offer an updated vaccination to protect against whatever strain of COVID is currently circulating,” said Lisa Marie Esolen, chief quality officer of the Guthrie Clinic.
The newest version of the COVID-19 vaccine may be available by the end of September, Cortland County Public Health Director Nicole Anjeski said in an email Monday.
“I would wait for the new formulation if you can,” said Dr. Stephen Thomas, professor of microbiology and immunology at Upstate Medical University in Syracuse. “For those folks at great risk of a bad outcome if infected and if they are unable to wait or there is a delay in having vaccines available, then it may be wise to get another immunization with the bivalent vaccine currently available.”
August has seen 31 reported cases in Cortland County – most of them in the past week – where July saw 21 cases and June just 16, the fewest since August 2020, just before that year’s fall spike.
During the surge last fall, daily numbers hit a high of 28 positive cases, recorded Sept. 9. There were 254 cases total in September 2022. And even that’s low compared to the worst day of the pandemic, Jan. 7, 2022, when Cortland saw 176 confirmed cases in a month that totaled 2,478 cases.
The spike has seen an increase in hospital admissions across upstate New York, Thomas said, but Elosen said that has occurred in Cortland, yet.
“There are reasons to recommend vaccination to people who would not be traditionally at risk,” Thomas said, including the possibility of long COVID. “I would get it myself.”
“We’re learning that it’s a much more significant health burden than we recognized, and it can affect young, healthy people,” Thomas said.
Indoor mask wearing may be recommended – Tompkins County issued that recommendation last week. A team of advisory scientists including Thomas recommended last week that medical facilities require masks in clinical areas.
The EG.5 variant is “kind of coming on and taking things by storm,” Thomas said. Variant FL. 1.5.1 has an increasing share of new cases, too. And a number of mutations of the BA strain are showing up.
Even if the nation’s state of emergency is over, COVID is still around and changing the story.
“This is Chapter One,” Thomas said. “We don’t really know that plot yet.”
